The landscape of social media is shifting once again, and this time, it’s a move that could have major implications for brands and marketers worldwide. TikTok is facing increasing regulatory pressure in the United States, with the potential for an outright ban coming as soon as next week.
The law passed last year requires ByteDance, TikTok's parent company, to sell the app to a US company or shut down operations in the country by Jan. 19, 2025. This uncertainty has led to a surge in interest in alternative platforms, and one name in particular is rising to the forefront: RedNote.
Chinese app RedNote, also known as Xiaohongshu, has been making waves, recently topping the US Apple App Store charts. Originally a lifestyle and e-commerce platform catering to Chinese users, it has expanded its appeal by blending short-form videos with an interactive community-driven experience. Sound familiar?
With TikTok’s future in the US unclear, many US influencers and content creators are migrating to RedNote in search of a stable, long-term alternative. The key question for us is, how might this affect Southeast Asian markets, where TikTok now has a dominant presence?
A Potential Domino Effect for TikTok in Southeast Asia
TikTok has deeply embedded itself in Southeast Asia, from influencing pop culture to transforming e-commerce through TikTok Shop. This is particularly true in Indonesia, which has delivered approximately 165.1 million users, making it the platform's largest user base globally.
Countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia have seen an explosion in social commerce driven by TikTok’s unique ability to merge entertainment with shopping. However, if TikTok’s troubles in the US lead to further restrictions in other markets, brands in Southeast Asia need to prepare for potential disruptions.
Governments in this region may not immediately follow suit with bans or regulations, but the global scrutiny surrounding TikTok means the platform could face additional compliance challenges, algorithmic shifts, or even business restructuring.
ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, may also shift its priorities toward strengthening its foothold in Southeast Asia as it potentially loses access to the US market. This could mean more aggressive investments in the region, better monetization tools for creators, and more. However, if RedNote gains traction globally, it could soon look to Southeast Asia as its next expansion target, presenting a direct challenge to TikTok’s dominance.
Influencer Migration and New Content Strategies
One of the most immediate effects of TikTok’s uncertain future is the migration of influencers to other platforms. In the US, creators are already exploring new homes on Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and RedNote. If this trend continues, we could see a similar shift in emerging Asia, with influencers diversifying their presence across multiple platforms to safeguard their audiences and revenue streams.
For context, in recent years, TikTok Shop's gross merchandise value in Southeast Asia quadrupled from US$4.4 billion in 2022 to $16.3 billion. The surge elevated TikTok Shop to the second-largest e-commerce platform in the region, surpassing Lazada and closely trailing Shopee, which maintains a 48% market share.
For brands that have heavily relied on TikTok for influencer marketing, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity. On one hand, it means that traditional TikTok-driven campaigns may not be as effective if key influencers move away. On the other hand, early adopters of RedNote could gain a first-mover advantage, establishing their presence on the platform before competition intensifies.
Marketers will need to closely monitor where their target audiences are engaging and be ready to pivot their content strategies accordingly.
What Brands Should Do Now
To stay ahead of these shifts, brands in Southeast Asia must adopt a proactive and flexible approach. First, staying informed about RedNote’s expansion plans and user demographics will be crucial. If the platform begins to make moves in the region, brands should establish an early presence to test engagement and content performance.
Additionally, maintaining a presence across multiple platforms—including Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and other short-form video formats—will ensure that brands are not overly dependent on TikTok.
Influencer relationships will also need to evolve. Brands should start identifying creators who are experimenting with RedNote or other platforms and build partnerships that allow for cross-platform engagement. This approach will help mitigate risks and ensure continuity in audience reach.
Moreover, brands must adapt their content strategies to fit different platform dynamics. While TikTok thrives on hyper-engaging, trend-driven content, RedNote may prioritize more in-depth, visually appealing storytelling. Marketers should be ready to tweak their messaging and creative formats to align with what works best on each platform.
Finally, keeping an eye on regulatory developments in Southeast Asia is essential. While there are no immediate signs of TikTok facing bans in the region, data privacy and security concerns are global issues. Brands must ensure that they comply with local regulations and are prepared for any sudden shifts in platform policies.
The Bottom Line for Marketers
The rise of RedNote and the uncertain future of TikTok in the US mark a turning point in the social media landscape. While Southeast Asia may not experience the same immediate disruptions, the ripple effects will undoubtedly shape the region’s digital marketing ecosystem. Brands that embrace adaptability—whether by diversifying their platforms, evolving their influencer strategies, or testing new content formats—will be best positioned to thrive in this changing environment.
For the region’s marketers, the message is clear: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. The digital space is evolving rapidly, and the brands that stay ahead are those that remain agile, experimental, and responsive to emerging trends.
Mission Media is a PR, marketing, and creative consultancy built for the now in Southeast Asia. A future-focused reputation partner, we boost your brand equity and share of voice in the local market with intelligence and authenticity. Check out our services and get in touch.
