Australia Tourism Economy to Hit $233B by 2030
China leads APAC recovery as Australia's visitor economy targets $233B by 2030. International arrivals to hit 10.9M while domestic shifts favor regional, high-frequency travel.
Australia's visitor economy is set to reach $233 billion by 2030, up from $180.6 billion in 2024, according to Tourism Research Australia and Austrade forecasts released this week. The growth represents a 4% annual increase driven by recovering Asia Pacific markets and shifting domestic travel patterns.
International arrivals are expected to climb from 8.8 million in 2025 to 10.9 million by 2030, with international visitor spending projected to reach $46 billion, up from $32.9 billion in 2024.
China Leads APAC Recovery
China is positioned as the fastest-growing inbound market for Australian tourism, supported by recovering outbound travel demand and expanded aviation capacity between the two countries. Chinese, Indian, Southeast Asian, and New Zealand visitors each display distinct travel behaviors and media consumption patterns, requiring tailored marketing approaches.
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"International arrivals are going to be expanding significantly," said Garrett Tyler-Parker, Austrade's director of analysis and insights. "That growth is being driven by recovering Asian markets, especially China, alongside Australia's strong reputation as a safe and desirable destination."
Tourism Australia currently operates through partnerships with 160-plus Key Distribution Partners and collaborates with China Media Group on campaigns targeting Chinese travelers. The agency's media planning now covers 16 international markets across the Asia Pacific region.
Domestic Travel Patterns Shift
The domestic tourism sector is experiencing structural changes as cost-of-living pressures reshape how Australians travel. In 2025, domestic day trips are forecast to jump 10%, with spending rising 18% to $46 billion. By 2030, domestic tourism spending should reach $187 billion, split between $130 billion for overnight trips and $57 billion for day trips.
"We're seeing people travel closer to home and take shorter trips," Tyler-Parker explained. "Travel has become much more of a must in the Australian lifestyle these days. It will be budgeted for."
This shift toward high-frequency, lower-cost experiences favors weekend drives, regional events, and food and cultural activities. The trend creates opportunities for outdoor advertising, retail partnerships, and location-based marketing strategies.
Enhanced Data Capabilities
The forecasts incorporate DoTS (Domestic Tourism Statistics), which combines traditional surveys with anonymized mobile mobility data to provide more detailed insights into travel patterns. This data advancement allows for better regional targeting and stronger alignment between media investment and actual travel behavior.
The THRIVE 2030 strategy allocates 40% of tourism spending to regional areas, requiring communications teams to develop localized media planning approaches. Tourism Tasmania's recent win of "Travel Marketing Team of the Year" at the Mumbrella Awards 2025 demonstrates the effectiveness of regional campaign strategies.
Tyler-Parker emphasized that "one-size-fits-all international planning will increasingly miss the mark" as Asia Pacific markets continue diversifying. Australian outbound trips are projected to reach 14.9 million by 2030, indicating sustained travel appetite across the region.
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