Google’s AdStack On the Chopping Block, Asia Prepares for a New Programmatic Era
US antitrust pressure on Google signals a major change ahead for APAC advertisers, who stand to benefit from cheaper CPMs and more transparent auctions.
US District Court Judge Leonie Brinkema pressed the Department of Justice on Friday to outline how quickly it could implement a breakup of Google's advertising technology business, signaling urgency in a case with major implications for Asia's US$200 billion digital ad market.
The judge's November 21 hearing focused on remedy timelines following her April 17, 2025 ruling that found Google guilty of illegally monopolizing publisher ad servers and ad exchanges.
The DOJ and several states are demanding Google sell its ad exchange, AdX, which they claim charges publishers a 20% fee while maintaining anti-competitive control over the digital advertising supply chain.
Court pushes for swift action despite appeals
Judge Brinkema emphasized the need for speed, acknowledging that potential appeals could delay enforcement but insisting on clarity around implementation timelines. DOJ attorney Matthew Huppert argued that "structural separation is the only way to halt Google's anti-competitive flow of resources between monopolized and competitive markets," maintaining that only a forced sale can dismantle Google's monopolies.
Google's lead counsel Karen Dunn countered that a breakup would be extreme and technically challenging, citing a 2004 Supreme Court ruling supporting lawfully acquired monopolies. She warned that "the court's remedy must avoid harming the very competition it seeks to protect." The company plans to appeal any divestiture order.
The case represents a significant shift for Google, which has largely avoided the regulatory consequences faced by other Big Tech companies in recent years. Publishers and rivals are now seeking damages following the monopoly finding.
Leighton Cosseboom
Regional hubs face potential cost shifts
Singapore and Hong Kong, which host regional headquarters for 78% of APAC advertisers, face potential disruptions if remedies force Google to decouple AdX from its advertising stack. Industry projections suggest these marketing hubs could see 15% to 20% ad cost reductions if Google divests AdX and DoubleClick for Publishers.
The case follows a US$1.375 billion settlement Google reached with Texas and other US states in May 2025, creating a legal template that Asian regulators may pursue.
The European Commission separately fined Google €2.95 billion in September 2025, pressuring the company to restructure global ad tech operations and potentially accelerate API and data access for Asian advertisers.
Japan's Dentsu and South Korea's Cheil Worldwide are already testing alternative demand-side platforms, anticipating 10% to 15% cost savings from reduced platform fees. Southeast Asian regulators, including Indonesia's KPPU and Malaysia's MyCC, are reportedly drafting enhanced digital competition frameworks based on the US and EU actions.
Leighton Cosseboom
Timeline and market implications
The remedies phase concludes in November 2025, with a six-year compliance monitoring period mandated by the US court. Final legal resolution, including appeals, is projected for 2027 to 2028, creating a three- to nine-month scenario window for divestiture-driven decoupling.
Programmatic ad spend in Asia could shift significantly toward emerging rivals like InMobi and Criteo if Google's stack is dismantled. Southeast Asia's small and medium enterprise advertisers stand to gain most from reduced platform fees if local regulators mirror US and EU actions.
The court may mandate API access to Google's auction data, a critical advantage for Asia's CMOs seeking to optimize programmatic buys. This technical oversight could force Google to share search and ad data with Asian competitors under the US court order.
The US also has ongoing antitrust cases against Amazon and Apple, though a judge recently dismissed the FTC's attempt to force Meta to divest Instagram and WhatsApp.
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