Forrester: AI Shifts From Digital to Physical Operations in 2026

Forrester's Top 10 Emerging Technologies In 2026 report identifies a fundamental shift in how AI is being deployed: the technology is moving out of apps and websites and into physical environments including retail stores, logistics networks, and customer-facing service operations.

The report categorizes emerging technologies by expected return timelines, giving marketing and technology leaders a framework to prioritize spending based on proximity to results rather than novelty.

Agentic Commerce Leads Short-Term Returns

Forrester places agentic commerce among three technologies expected to deliver returns within two years. The category covers AI-driven personalization and automated customer interactions, initially through company-controlled digital channels before expanding into physical retail environments.

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Two other short-term technologies round out the near-term category: AI security and trust controls, and frontier AI models that form the infrastructure for future automation. Agentic software development and humanoid robots are categorized as medium-term opportunities, with quantum computing the sole long-term bet at five or more years.

"With new technologies constantly emerging, business and technology leaders need to plan their tech investments based on value, risk, and potential payout timelines," said Sharyn Leaver, Chief Research Officer at Forrester.

The Returns Gap Remains Wide

The report arrives as enterprise AI faces a measurable accountability problem. More than 70% of firms now have generative or predictive AI in production. Yet only 20% of businesses reported earnings benefits from AI in 2024, despite billions committed to AI infrastructure in 2023.

Forrester's data shows 90% of B2C marketing executives plan increased AI investment in 2025, yet most deployments remain experimental. The gap between investment intent and measurable outcomes is the defining challenge for marketing leaders building 2026 roadmaps.

Physical AI deployments are already generating documented results in some markets. NVIDIA-documented retail and telecom deployments using AI-powered customer service systems report a 60% reduction in call loads. Dell and ServiceNow's Smart Operations initiative deploys edge AI in physical retail stores, integrating sensors and IoT devices for real-time store mapping and asset tracking. Physical feedback kiosks deployed across retail, airport, and healthcare environments report 30% increases in customer satisfaction scores.

Asia Pacific Faces a Regional Readiness Gap

Forrester's lifecycle revenue marketing maturity research places Europe ahead on AI production deployment at 33%, compared to 21% for both North America and Asia Pacific. The regional parity between North America and Asia Pacific masks significant variation across markets including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Southeast Asia.

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The agency ecosystem supporting Asia Pacific CMOs adds a further complication. Forrester's 2026 B2B Brand and Communications Survey found that 54% of marketing leaders identify data and AI readiness as a top agency selection criterion. Only 10% report satisfaction with their current agency's AI execution. That 44-percentage-point gap has direct implications for physical AI deployments, which require closer collaboration between brands and their agency partners on data, creative, and technology integration.

Approximately 25% of robotics projects are now combining cognitive and physical automation, enabling machines to sense and respond to environments dynamically rather than follow fixed rules. Forrester categorizes humanoid robots as a medium-term opportunity, citing integration, safety, and workforce transition barriers as the primary obstacles to near-term returns.

Governance Determines Who Captures Returns

Forrester's framework emphasizes that successful AI adoption depends less on technology selection and more on governance, safe integration, and measurable outcomes. The report stresses that leaders should spread investments across shorter-term technologies for quick returns and longer-term bets that require more preparation.

For Asia Pacific marketing leaders, Forrester's timeline-based framework offers a structured response to the pressure of justifying AI budgets at board level, at a moment when the infrastructure for physical AI deployment is already being built by enterprise competitors.