Meta to Overtake Google in Global Ad Revenue by 2026

Meta is forecast to surpass Google in global digital advertising revenue for the first time by the end of 2026, according to eMarketer's latest forecast. It marks the first leadership change in eMarketer's 14 years of tracking the metric.

Revenue Gap Closes in a Single Year

Meta is projected to generate US$243.46 billion in net worldwide ad revenue in 2026, edging past Google's forecast US$239.54 billion. The gap is striking given that Google led by roughly US$18 billion just one year earlier, with US$214.06 billion in 2025 versus Meta's US$196.17 billion.

Meta's growth rate is the primary driver. The platform is forecast to grow at 24.1% in 2026, up from 22.1% in 2025. Google, by comparison, is projected to grow at 11.9%. Meta's global share of digital ad spend is expected to reach 26.8%, narrowly surpassing Google's declining 26.4%.

"In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated," said Max Willens, Principal Analyst at eMarketer. "Meta has long understood that scale, network effects, and habits are more important than anything else in digital media."

AI Tools and Reels Drive Meta's Acceleration

eMarketer analysts attribute Meta's momentum to several simultaneous product advances rather than a single catalyst. Its Advantage+ suite of automated ad tools is improving performance across Facebook and Instagram. Reels, Meta's short-form video product, has seen U.S. watch time grow more than 30% and is projected to hit a US$50 billion revenue run rate.

"Advertisers are getting better bang for their buck, and that's pulling more ad dollars onto the platform," said Zach Goldner, Senior Forecasting Analyst at eMarketer.

Willens added that for most advertisers, "the question is not whether they should spend money on Meta's apps, but how much they should spend."

Google Faces Structural Pressure on Multiple Fronts

Google's challenges extend beyond Meta's gains. Its share of the U.S. search advertising market is expected to fall below 50% for the first time in over a decade. Amazon is capturing product-related searches, while AI-powered alternatives are changing how consumers find information online.

Amazon itself is projected to reach US$82.07 billion in digital ad revenue in 2026, rising to approximately US$97 billion in 2027. Its global digital ad share is forecast at 9.0% in 2026, cementing its position as a significant third player in the market.

Together, Meta, Google, and Amazon are projected to control 62.3% of total worldwide digital ad spend in 2026, a concentration expected to deepen through 2028.

A US$1 Trillion Market Expanding Toward Fewer Platforms

Global advertising is forecast to surpass US$1 trillion for the first time in 2026. Social video, retail media, and programmatic advertising are the primary growth engines. 86% of CMOs expect advertising budgets to increase over the next 12 months, according to dentsu's December 2025 forecast.

That expanding pool of ad dollars is flowing disproportionately toward the three largest platforms. For smaller platforms and traditional media owners, the concentration presents a growing competitive challenge.

For marketing leaders managing regional budgets across Asia-Pacific, where both Meta and Google compete intensely for brand and performance spending, eMarketer's forecast signals a meaningful shift in where advertiser value is accumulating heading into H2 2026 planning cycles.